increase or decrease in real estate in 2008? In response, back to the years 2006 and 2007 I will not answer the question of the title of note in this message.
I'd like to just make this post a little background on what we read in the press there is a little over a year.
Begin:
Capital.fr Article, December 2006 (Article dark blue ) Xerfi institute expects a decline in real estate -25% for 2010
A study percussion institute Xerfi predicts falling house prices by 25% by 2010 ... So far, the "experts" took the gloves to predict lower prices ...
Thus, in September, analysts had BIPE immediately qualified their bearish forecast of a reassuring commentary ("This is indeed a" soft landing ").
None of this at the Institute of Economic Studies Xerfi, which provides that "the high point of the cycle has been reached" and "be sharp reversal."
"-25% by 2010"
"The property prices should, in our scenario, recede substantially from 2007, about 25% to 2010 ", says the study.
Its author, Mirlicourtois Alexander, Director of Economic Sector, outlines the timetable for Capital.fr down "after a rise of about 10% this year, we see a drop of 2% annual average for 2007 and a steeper decline subsequent years, -13% in 2008, -8% -3% in 2009 and in 2010, which will be the low point of the cycle.
"Can we speak of a crash? "
Not really, because 25% comes after a doubling of price, we remain on high levels. However, for those who buy now, it's true that the penalty may be harsh ".
households overcome debt
The arguments justifying this price decline are known, "we had never seen such an increase over the long term trend, both in Paris and province, and households no longer have the ability to buy. We will end the system of extending loans, "said Alexander Mirlicourtois.
"Moreover, the levels of housing starts are high, with nearly 3 million housing units built last 10 years in the hexagon.
"All this because we do not believe the scenario in the landing smooth. "Moreover, the United States," we no longer talk of a slowdown of rising prices, but lower real "...
Editorial Seloger.com, February 2008 ( from the site in dark green )
resistant housing market in France. The beginning of the year confirms the trend in late 2007, including numbness in the housing market and a soft landing Price offered for sale. In many cities of France, the time is not decreasing but still stagnating market. storefront, prices remain high. They are progressing well the past three months in some cities like Marseille (+0.8%) and Lille (+ 0.2%). In Paris the price increase is less strong: + 7.6% yoy against 8.2% the previous month. The national price index of housing sales will stabilize in February recording a near zero change: - 0.01% in a month.
What can be deduced? Believe institutes forecast of 3 years is like believing in his horoscope every morning (it's the wind, nothing more).
One thing is certain now: market stagnated, rising stocks in new increases, borrowing rates are high, many mortgage applications are rejected by banks.
What we can predict (without much mistaken): lower interest rates (currently very strong) could boost the property sector. Ideally, a decline in interest rates in September could allow dosssiers refused now to regain good. Stocks decline new apartment. Sales in the former should also leave after the decrease in sales earlier this year. The sector could start on the bases a little more healthy. Finally, analysis SeLoger.com, February 2008, the property sector in Western France
few sharp price rises in the Great Western region.
SeLoger.com The barometer is an increase in rates over the last three months in cities like Le Havre (+9.5%), Rouen (+6.6%), Quimper (+ 3.7%) or St. Brieuc (+ 4.6 °). In Nantes, sellers have slightly reduced their claims on the rise since December. Transactions carried out on the basis of 2 833 euros / m² (+ 0.6% for three months). Rennes follows opposite trend with a negative trend of 0.6% in prices since December. Caen, Le Mans and valves have been a rather quiet month of February.
In one year, two cities stand out: Rennes recorded a rise of 20.7% and Le Mans were up 19.7%. Nantes and Vannes up the rear with respective declines of 1.6% and 1.7%.
